A Lasting Ceasefire Involving Israel and Palestine? We have Seen This Pattern – The Outcome Was Further Bloodshed
So, what time period do we find ourselves? The White House occupant, following an extended period of tacit encouragement, has ultimately stepped in to stop an military campaign from Israel that has transformed swaths of a city in the Middle East to debris, leaving thousands deceased and prompting international condemnation.
The campaign has followed a series of strikes on Israel. Now, responding to pressure from the White House, the prime minister of Israel, a rightwinger with an aptitude for popular speech and a strong feeling of historical Jewish national duty, has consented to a ceasefire.
Historical Parallels
The year is not the current year, but 1982. The city is not Gaza City, but Beirut, Lebanon. The US leader is the Reagan administration, not today's leadership.
We find numerous variations between the events in the Lebanese nation over four decades ago and current circumstances in Palestinian territories in the past two years. The militant assault of last year, which caused over a thousand and involved numerous captured, differs significantly with the somewhat modest efforts of the PLO in the time before the Israeli incursion of Lebanon.
Striking Parallels
Several similarities are remarkable. The president ultimately picked up the phone the counterpart, telling him that events in the capital was "a holocaust" and saying the relationship between their countries could be gravely damaged if the violence carried on.
In 1982, much as today, the conflict played out in live on global media. Many correspondents traveled to Beirut to report on for the first time an Middle Eastern conflict without information control by either side.
Subsequent Developments
What happened subsequent to the communication from Reagan and the truce in the city is instructive. The PLO, its factions and representatives were dispersed across thousands of miles and a various states.
Washington then withdrew international forces – a breach of the understanding with Arafat. Bashir Gemayel, the nation's recently chosen leader and Israeli-supported figure, was assassinated by Syrian intelligence.
Area-wide Shifts
Similar patterns emerged across the wider Middle East. By the end of the 1970s, the predominantly worldly and forward-thinking concepts that had appeared to provide the potential of a different tomorrow in the Middle Eastern nations years before were weakened.
The consequences of this became very clear, very quickly
Across the region, the Israeli state and the United States now encountered adversaries who were considerably more unyielding, dangerous and effective than the progressive groups and nationalists of earlier years.
Global Approach
Internationally, the outcomes of this were counterintuitive. Through the seventies, international experts and policymakers had tried to analyze what caused violent extremism.
Afterward, in the start of the eighties, this ceased. Government officials in the United States, the Britain and additional countries were ceased being concerned in "underlying reasons" of unrest.
Modern Parallels
Recently, reports indicate that current leadership informed Israeli counterparts that Israel could not confront global opinion and recognized Palestinian aspirations for a state.
This also was an echo of historical precedent. In the wake of the Israeli invasion of the neighboring country, past government told Israel that the strength of its military alone could not "establish just and lasting peace" and recognized "legitimate rights of the Palestinian population."
However a internationally-backed comprehensive agreement supposed to answer those grievances failed to progress. From exile, national representatives looked on powerlessly.
Global attention in the Middle East decreased. The nation opposed compromises. Subsequently, there was the first intifada, and the establishment of further armed organizations.
- The repetitions of history provide sobering perspectives for contemporary resolution attempts
- Enduring agreements require addressing underlying issues rather than brief halts
- Local circumstances continue to evolve in complex and sometimes unexpected ways